How It Works
Calibr isn't about gambling on outcomes. It's about testing—and improving—your judgment.
Predict YES or NO
Pick a side on real-world events.
Choose Confidence
50% to your max unlocked level.
Risk Matches Confidence
Higher confidence = more at stake.
Reputation Updates
Results shape your long-term score.
The Core Principles
Confidence isn't free
Every confidence claim carries weight. Say 90% and be wrong? That costs more than saying 60%.
Being wrong at high confidence hurts
The penalty scales with overconfidence. This forces you to be honest about uncertainty.
Being right with precision builds reputation
Accurate confidence over time compounds into a strong reputation score.
Simulate Your Risk
See how confidence affects your potential returns and penalties.
Prediction Simulator
Balanced risk/reward
High confidence wins compound fast.
How Reputation Works
Calibrated Wins
When you're right at 70% confidence, you gain reputation.
Overconfidence Penalty
Being wrong at 90% confidence costs more than being wrong at 60%.
Confidence Unlocks
Higher reputation unlocks higher max confidence levels.
Long-term Focus
Reputation rewards consistent calibration over time.
The Key Insight
Most people are overconfident. When they say they're 90% sure, they're right maybe 70% of the time. Calibr helps you discover—and correct—your own confidence blindspots.